In an attempt to alleviate the uncertainty about what is happening and the resultant anxiety induced in me, here are what I think are the most important trends to always glance at for Kenya, based on the daily updates from the Ministry of Health. I will do my best to update this as often as possible. The Ministry of Health has been quite consistent with data dissemination, gladly.

1. Cumulative Number of Cases
2. Log of Cumulative number of cases (A linear trend is a quick way of determining if the growth is exponential)
3. Daily New cases - Actual(Dotted) and Smoothed (Continous)
4. Cumulative Recoveries and Deaths
5. Case Fatality Ratio
6. Cumulative Tests
7. Effective Reproduction Rate (Rt) based on this work by Kevin Systrome, built based on the method described by Bettencourt & Ribeiro in 2008.

This is the Daily estimated value of Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. This is just an estimate, and is not perfect, but it gives a rough indicator of the level of spread. Learn more here. There are also country estimates here, but Kenya is not among the countries, weirdly.